Open-Market Deep Freeze: The Coming Atlantic Cable Crunch

Retiring Atlantic cables and AI demand are converging on a wholesale capacity crisis that could hit by late 2027

28 May 2026

Seven of the 21 submarine cable systems operating across the Atlantic are approaching retirement. The looming decommissioning coincides with a surge in artificial intelligence workloads, creating a potential wholesale bandwidth shortfall by late 2027.

The capacity pressure has been intensified by a shift in infrastructure ownership. Rather than purchasing wholesale bandwidth from traditional network operators, large technology companies increasingly finance proprietary subsea cables to carry internal traffic. This trend restricts the volume of open-market capacity available to standard telecom carriers and multinational companies.

Data from research firm TeleGeography indicates that international subsea cable investment will exceed $16 billion between 2026 and 2029, its highest level in more than two decades. However, the majority of this capital is directed into systems owned by hyperscale cloud service providers, meaning the infrastructure remains unavailable to the open market.

Industry executives highlighted the growing regional imbalance during the Pacific Telecommunications Council conference. Executives from Google, EXA Infrastructure, and Colt Technology stated that transatlantic network utilization is tracking at record levels. EXA Infrastructure noted that its own Atlantic traffic volumes in 2025 exceeded the combined total of the previous three years.

The open-market capacity deficit leaves corporate buyers and smaller carriers facing a narrowing window to secure international links. Infrastructure operators are discussing new financing structures to fund open-market replacements before legacy lines are decommissioned.

Google’s senior director for submarine networks stated that building a higher volume of cables with more diverse landing points represents the only long-term structural solution to the supply bottleneck.

Without a shift toward independent network funding, commercial consumers face rising costs and limited options as the available wholesale supply pools shrink. Whether external financiers will back these open-market projects in time to avert the 2027 shortfall remains an unresolved risk for the digital economy.